Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2157
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 22 2024 02:14:17

ACUS11 KWNS 220214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220213=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-220345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Areas affected...Western OK into parts of central/eastern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 220213Z - 220345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms may persist
through late evening.

DISCUSSION...There has been some recent increase in storm
coverage/intensity from western OK into central KS this evening,
possibly in response to strengthening low-level warm advection (as
inferred from the KVNX and KICT VWPs) to the south/east of a
mid/upper-level cyclone near the NE/KS border. The window for
surface-based development is likely limited due to increasing MLCINH
with time and eastward extent, though a narrow zone of MUCAPE near
or above 1000 J/kg could support a few stronger elevated storms
through the late evening, in the presence of favorable deep-layer
shear. Isolated hail and gusty winds will be possible with the
strongest storms.

...Dean/Guyer.. 10/22/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_a1A5WmwYcjiCZMMcI6_YtZlH9YMZftzhhCu-_HKXZgWqoaB-b0iMehsAHYfiURsUFsgLTmkg=
TTX1ZhKbtlRxgwDWxk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   34829978 35019980 35329969 35949938 38149811 39689772
            39769671 39119662 37659697 36889728 35859829 35039905
            34659960 34829978=20


=3D =3D =3D
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