Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 22 2024 00:40:44

ACUS01 KWNS 220040
SWODY1
SPC AC 220039

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTH-CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN OK...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts may
persist for a few more hours from parts of southern Nebraska to
western Oklahoma.

....NE/KS/OK...
Primary severe threat should remain in the form of marginal hail
through about 03-04Z before further waning in the late evening. Low
to mid-level wind fields surrounding a compact shortwave trough over
south-central NE are expected to dampen somewhat as the wave tracks
into IA overnight. More robust convection has been confined near the
north-central KS/south-central NE border area. This activity will
spread away from the nearly stationary surface-based instability
plume, as it shifts eastward during the next couple hours.
Convection farther south has struggled to greatly intensify ahead of
the dryline, and the temporal window for more robust development to
occur is closing. Overnight, an arc of decaying elevated convection
is largely anticipated as activity spreads into parts of IA/MO.

...Grams.. 10/22/2024

$$

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