Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 21 2024 19:43:15

ACUS01 KWNS 211943
SWODY1
SPC AC 211941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across
central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening.

....20z Update...

The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong
to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across
central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some
on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface
low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on
latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term
details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential,
reference MCD 2155.

...Leitman.. 10/21/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/

....Central Plains...
A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into
the central Plains.  As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific
cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK.
The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with
dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of
considerable daytime heating.  This will lead to a corridor of
potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours.  Most
CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where
robust storms may form.  One is near the weak surface low in
southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail
and perhaps a tornado are possible.  Another is in the area of
strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main
concern.  The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK,
where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection.

Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern
NE and northeast KS.  CAPE will be very limited in this region, but
strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as
convection arrives from the west around peak-heating.  This might be
sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.