Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 21 2024 05:26:11 ACUS01 KWNS 210526 SWODY1 SPC AC 210524 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the central Plains, mainly during the afternoon to early evening. ....Central Plains... Four Corners upper low is finally ejecting northeast and should advance into the central High Plains by 18z before moving into the middle MS Valley by the end of the period. In response to this feature, notable LLJ will shift from the High Plains at sunrise into central KS/eastern NE by late afternoon. At the surface, a sharp lee trough will be dislodged early, and a weak wave is expected to develop along the KS/NE border. This will ensure southeasterly low-level flow across northern KS into central NE through peak heating. Large-scale pattern favors focused low-level convergence over southern NE/northern KS but the magnitude of instability is not expected to be that strong, with perhaps MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg across the MRGL risk where surface dew points are able to rise into the mid 50s. While buoyancy is not forecast to be that significant, modestly steep lapse rates and 90m 12hr height falls do warrant attention, as high-level diffluent flow will prove favorable for robust updrafts. Scattered convection will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period, along the leading edge of stronger forcing, within the low-level warm advection corridor. This activity should propagate east during the day with the potential for strong/severe storms developing in its wake where boundary layer warms. Current thinking is isolated severe storms, including supercells, will evolve by mid afternoon within the left exit region of the mid-level jet. At this time will maintain MRGL risk, but there was some consideration for introducing a SLGT, and this may be need in later outlooks. ...Darrow.. 10/21/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .