Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 21 2024 00:59:56

FOUS30 KWBC 210059
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
859 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Oct 21 2024 - 12Z Mon Oct 21 2024

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....0100 UTC Update...
Current SPC mesoanalysis shows rather robust mixed layer CAPE
values across much of eastern NM (2000-3000 J/Km), owing somewhat
to fairly decent mid-level lapse rates (~7-7.5 C/Km between 700-500
mb), within the area of continued vigorous deep-layer forcing
(persistent difluence aloft and DPVA) east of the mid-upper level=20
low. Additional streaks of convection were developing early this=20
evening per the mosaic radar loops, with some of these bands
crossing areas in eastern-northeastern NM that have received 2-4"+
in the past 48 hours per the latest observations and MRMS QPE. For
the remainder of the overnight we have maintained the Slight Risk
across these areas, where FFGs have lowered to the tune of 1-1.5"=20
within 3 hours. Meanwhile, the latest NASA SPoRT soil moisture
percentiles in the top 10cm are over 95% across the Slight Risk
area.

Hurley

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 21 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 22 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 22 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 23 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Campbell


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-MyhYT6RBPYYSD9rJAkdI81zNgK4nIlgKiYZna_bYqWS=
EZV8ZB-uyfdUEG4F0lOxbLfoKJ6GsJhdFz_XAiT_zHf_z3w$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-MyhYT6RBPYYSD9rJAkdI81zNgK4nIlgKiYZna_bYqWS=
EZV8ZB-uyfdUEG4F0lOxbLfoKJ6GsJhdFz_XAiT_bOfxv7U$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!-MyhYT6RBPYYSD9rJAkdI81zNgK4nIlgKiYZna_bYqWS=
EZV8ZB-uyfdUEG4F0lOxbLfoKJ6GsJhdFz_XAiT_ruILNl4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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