Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 21 2024 00:59:20

AWUS01 KWNH 210059
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-210657-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1108
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
858 PM EDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Areas affected...Eastern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 210057Z - 210657Z

SUMMARY...Localized training of showers and thunderstorms will
likely result in some additional areas of flash flooding heading
into the overnight hours. This will especially be the case given
the wet antecedent conditions across the region.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a closed
upper low near the Four Corners region gradually beginning to
shift off to the northeast. Divergent flow aloft ahead of the
upper low associated with DPVA will be combining with a moderately
unstable airmass over areas of eastern NM for locally broken
coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms heading into the
overnight hours.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg are in place which combined
with a belt of 30 to 40 kts of effective bulk shear should yield a
threat for locally organized bands of multicell convection and
potentially a few supercells that will be capable of producing
heavy rainfall rates. The PWs over eastern NM are quite moist and
running 2 to 2.5 standard deviations above normal.

The more organized pockets of convection may produce rainfall
rates of 1.5 to 2.0 inches/hour, and given the environment that is
conducive for some cell-training, there may be some rainfall
totals going through 06Z that reach as high as 2 to 4 inches. This
is generally consistent with the 18Z HREF guidance and reflects
the expectation that there may be some additional uptick in the
coverage of convection over the next few hours.

Given the wet antecedent conditions over the region from recent
heavy rainfall, some additional areas of flash flooding are likely
heading into the overnight hours. This will also include a concern
for burn scar impacts over portions of the Sangre De Cristo
Mountains.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5MJ2sADZY9EmaYcnp_5h7RATo0dNis5ipsVUN-_hPtKQoCM-ueCzRVzqpwrrd3U7P-dk=
RO0El7kihgwyWI15CMVS_z8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37130455 37070359 36570311 35120310 33850331=20
            33330382 33240440 33600493 34060511 34960540=20
            35330598 35790629 36280607 36890540=20

=3D =3D =3D
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