Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 20 2024 19:58:00 ACUS01 KWNS 201957 SWODY1 SPC AC 201956 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND SOUTHEASTERN CO.... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico and extreme southeastern Colorado this afternoon/evening. ....20z... The previous outlook remains on track with minor adjustments based on the latest guidance/observations. Severe probabilities have been expanded slightly north and eastward into parts of southeastern CO ahead of strong to potentially severe storms developing over northeastern NM. Some clearing within weak upslope flow across southeast CO will support slightly greater buoyancy (~1000 J/kg of MUCAPE) with modestly favorable deep-layer shear for supercell or organized multicells. The cool temperatures aloft and a favorable storm mode could support a risk for severe hail with the strongest storms through the remainder of this afternoon into this evening. See forthcoming MCD #2151 for additional info. Farther south across parts of east-central and southeastern NM, additional supercells appear likely late this afternoon into this evening ahead of a weak lee trough and the upper cyclone. More persistent upslope and clearing should support around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE with veering wind profiles. Supercells capable of hail and perhaps a tornado or two are possible. See the prior outlook for more info. ...Lyons.. 10/20/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ....Eastern NM... Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating. It appears this trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM. Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts. Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time period. Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before weakening. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .