Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 20 2024 16:21:57

ACUS01 KWNS 201621
SWODY1
SPC AC 201620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes
will be possible across eastern New Mexico this afternoon/evening.

....Eastern NM...
Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the
Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong
mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM.  Scattered
showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains
and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread
clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating.  It appears this
trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but
eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater
surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM.
Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few
discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon.  Forecast
soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer
shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts.
Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong
winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some
concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time
period.  Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before
weakening.

...Hart/Supinie.. 10/20/2024

$$

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