Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 20 2024 17:17:00 ACUS02 KWNS 201716 SWODY2 SPC AC 201715 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ....Synopsis... Upper low centered over the Four Corners region early Sunday is expected to become more progressive by early Monday, tracking northeastward across the central Plains throughout the day. As it does, associated enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base of this system and cold mid-level temperatures will spread across the central Plains (and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle and OK). At the surface, a weak low attendant to the upper system will move across KS, just to the southeast of the upper low. Some modest low-level moisture will precede this system, with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ....Central Plains into eastern TX Panhandle and western OK... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle into far eastern CO/western KS early Monday morning, fostered by warm advection preceding the upper low mentioned in the synopsis. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue within the warm conveyor throughout the day amid the modest buoyancy fostered predominantly by increased mid-level moisture and cooling mid-level temperatures. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support updraft organization/rotation, with a resultant risk for large hail. Even so, a predominantly linear and elevated storm mode suggest that the overall severe potential will be limited. A relatively greater severe risk is anticipated in the wake of this initial activity, as the surface low and attendant troughing progress through central KS and adjacent portions of south-central NE and northwest OK. Diurnal destabilization appears probable when the cloud cover associated with the leading showers and thunderstorms moves east and temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s. These temperatures amid low 60s dewpoints and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -14 to -16 deg C at 500 mb) will help support 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level flow will remain strong, with some additional strengthening of the shear provided by backing of the low-level flow near the surface low. This backed low-level flow will also lengthen the low-level hodograph. Overall environment supports organized discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Current guidance suggest the most favorable time frame for severe is between 21Z and 03Z from central KS into south-central NE. However, uncertainty remains regarding both how much diurnal destabilization occurs and the overall storm coverage. As a result, will maintain low severe probabilities for this outlook, but a higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in sufficient storm coverage increases. ...Mosier.. 10/20/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .