Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 20 2024 05:36:55 ACUS02 KWNS 200536 SWODY2 SPC AC 200535 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ....Synopsis... A cutoff low early Sunday morning across the Southwest will start to be picked up by the westerlies and eventually accelerate east-northeast across the central Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen across the central High Plains. This will draw some low-level moisture northward with mid-50s dewpoints expected into western Kansas by Monday afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along this surface trough with the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. ....Kansas into the eastern TX/OK Panhandles and western Oklahoma... Mid-50s dewpoints along and ahead of a surface trough in the central Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will result in weak (750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) instability. Forecast soundings show inhibition eroding between 20Z and 21Z. Around this time, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Mid level flow is forecast to strengthen somewhat during the day and overspread the narrow warm sector. This will result in a wind profile favorable for supercells. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat from any supercells which develop. Significant directional shear in the lowest 500-1000m will support the potential for a tornado or two, but the weak instability should keep the threat somewhat limited. Any severe threat should wane by late evening as the boundary layer cools and inhibition increases. ...Bentley.. 10/20/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .