Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 20 2024 05:34:25

ACUS01 KWNS 200534
SWODY1
SPC AC 200532

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

....SUMMARY...
A risk for hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or
two, is forecast across eastern New Mexico from mid-afternoon to
mid-evening.

....Eastern New Mexico...

500mb speed max appears to be translating through the base of the
trough into the downstream side of the upper low over western NM
early this morning. This evolution will finally warrant an ejection
of the low into southern CO by the end of the period. Large-scale
surface pattern remains favorable for southeasterly boundary-layer
flow across the southern High Plains as a dominant surface
anticyclone persists downstream from eastern OK into the Middle
Atlantic.

Deep convection has been common ahead of the upper trough the last
few days, especially across NM where longer-lived
updrafts/supercells have been observed at times during the late
afternoon/early evening. This is once again expected later today as
the strongest low-level heating will extend from northern Mexico
into the Colorado Plateau and western slopes of the Sacramento
Mountains. Cool mid-level temperatures and surface heating will lead
to weak inhibition across this region by 20z and thunderstorms
should readily develop, subsequently spreading downstream into
eastern NM where shear favors some longer-lived updrafts. While the
magnitude of instability will not be that strong, lapse rates will
be sufficiently steep for robust updrafts and supercells. Greatest
risk for strong/severe convection will be from mid-afternoon through
mid-evening. Some risk for all hazards is possible across portions
of eastern NM. Eastern extent of this activity will drop off sharply
due to the influence of drier/more stable low-level air mass over
the southern Plains.

...Darrow/Moore.. 10/20/2024

$$

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