Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Oct 19 2024 18:09:26 AWUS01 KWNH 191809 FFGMPD NMZ000-192330- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1104 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 208 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Areas affected...central to east-central NM Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 191806Z - 192330Z SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding will be possible across central/east-central NM through 23Z. Rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.5 in/hr and 15 minute rates locally over 0.5 inches are expected within repeating/training regions of thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...18Z water vapor imagery showed a well-defined closed low over AZ, with only slow movement observed over the past 6 hours. Upper level flow to the east of the closed low was fairly diffluent over NM with possible added lift occurring within the left-exit region of a weakly defined jet streak located on the south to southeast side of the closed low. MRMS-reflectivity has shown the recent development of a SSE to NNW oriented axis of stronger echoes over Lincoln into Torrance County, located on the western edge of an axis of 500-1000+ J/kg MLCAPE as depicted on the 17Z SPC mesoanalysis. Throughout the afternoon, greater insolation with breaks in cloud cover and continued southeasterly low level moisture transport will help to support an expanding coverage of 500 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE over central to eastern NM as depicted by recent runs of the RAP, with the greatest instability over southeastern portions of the state. The increased instability and low level convergence on the eastern side of the closed low will likely contribute to increasing thunderstorm coverage through 23Z. The greatest concern for flash flood potential will exist along and just east of the southern Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. While forecast LFC-EL mean flow of 30-50 kt from the south will keep individual cells moving, deep-layered southerly flow will allow for repeating and short-term training of cells at times, supporting localized hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.5 inches and 15-minute rates over 0.5 inches. The southeast facing slopes of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains have received 2 to 3+ inches of rain, much of that over the past 12 hours, increasing soil moisture. While other areas of NM have seen less than an inch over the past 24 hours, localized potential for flash flooding will exist where higher intensity rainfall repeats over the same location, especially with any overlap of sensitive burn scar locations or flashy creeks/streams. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9cCkAtwuCgz9kCxaZfuzdpFSkckHH3TQgvmNlepUS0VF0gtzIFd_wB4vXseyR8NcLsKS= QkQ2A0NVUAQkTjLiMAK2Rzw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36610437 36170409 35520412 33920435 32820478=20 32500555 32500611 33100636 34680642 35800697=20 36290701 36530678 36560631 36470601 36350589=20 36230577 36160549 36200542 36300520 36420509=20 36500487=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .