Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Oct 19 2024 05:12:13 AWUS01 KWNH 190512 FFGMPD COZ000-NMZ000-191110- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1103 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 110 AM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Areas affected...Central to Northeast NM...South-Central CO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 190510Z - 191110Z SUMMARY...A localized threat for flash flooding will develop going through the overnight hours as greater concentrations of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity occurs. The burn scar locations will be most susceptible to runoff concerns. DISCUSSION...A deep upper-level trough and associated closed low over the Southwest U.S. will be moving very slowly down to the southeast overnight. This will favor downstream areas of central and eastern NM seeing an uptick deep layer ascent as divergence aloft overspreads the region. Coinciding with this will be the persistence of an increasingly moist southeast low-level jet of 30 to 40 kts which will be advancing up across eastern NM. The overall PW environment currently is rather modest with PWs near 0.75 inches, but the latest CIRA-ALPW data shows a notable fetch of moisture in the SFC-850 mb layer advancing gradually north and west across the TX High Plains which eventually will become more entrenched over eastern NM later tonight and Saturday morning. MUCAPE values are on the order of 500 to 1000+ J/kg across portions of central and eastern NM currently, and this coupled with the deeper layer ascent and moisture transport from the TX High Plains and Rio Grande Valley should favor a gradual increase in the coverage of heavy showers and thunderstorms. This will be mainly focused in a southwest to northeast fashion from central to northeast NM and to some extent over parts of south-central CO. The latest hires CAM guidance suggests more increase in the coverage and intensity of convection over the next few hours, and radar imagery in conjunction with GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows several clusters of fairly well-organized cold-topped convection already evolving across the region. Rainfall rates with the stronger pockets of convection overnight may reach as high as 1 to 1.25 inches/hour, and given some potential for localized cell-training, some rainfall totals may reach as high as 2 to 3 inches. This will especially be the case over the orographically favored Sangre De Cristo Mountains. A localized threat for some flash flooding will exist with the burn scar locations generally the most susceptible to seeing runoff problems. In particular, the Hermits Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar area in the Sangre De Cristo Mountains will be at risk for impacts. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9t6GemCbgfS6ZnVadRJDe0JuwfzOxNQVOKUxeZhIUAIeb7IGRiJo8QoHkiXDmKZj6TiI= nmO8CfIe_bhki7gm0xhwv-4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37580437 37210381 36580373 35620403 34870454=20 34670502 34780561 35050594 35720606 36220606=20 36670589 37090559 37430507=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .