Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 19 2024 00:32:11

ACUS01 KWNS 190032
SWODY1
SPC AC 190030

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO REGION...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado remain
possible this evening over parts of eastern New Mexico region.

....01z Update...

Well-defined upper low is settling into northern AZ as the primary
500mb speed max translates into the base of the trough near the
international border. This evolution will not contribute to
appreciable height falls over the southern High Plains tonight, but
strong deep-layer shear and moist/weakly buoyant profiles continue
to favor some risk for supercells. One longer-lived
updraft/supercell is lifting north-northeast across western De Baca
County NM. This storm has some characteristics that favor small
hail, but otherwise might be producing some wind gusts. Otherwise,
scattered strong/severe convection should continue across parts of
eastern NM this evening as moist, weak upslope flow will persist
through the overnight hours. Strong convection will struggle to
advance into TX later tonight as 00z soundings at both MAF and AMA
exhibit only modestly steep lapse rates with substantial inhibition
in the 750-700mb layer.

...Darrow.. 10/19/2024

$$

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