Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 18 2024 05:49:31

ACUS01 KWNS 180549
SWODY1
SPC AC 180548

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, with a threat for hail, damaging
gusts and a tornado or two, will be possible this afternoon and
evening from the southern Rockies eastward into the southern High
Plains.

....Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains...
An upper-level low will move southeastward across the Desert
Southwest today, as warm advection takes place ahead of the system
over the southern Plains. Low-level moisture will increase across
eastern New Mexico and west Texas as a low-level jet remains in
place. As surface temperatures warm during the day, an axis of
instability will develop across eastern New Mexico, where MLCAPE is
forecast to peak around 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the
instability axis at 00Z/Saturday have 0-6km shear in the 40 to 45
knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This
environment will support supercells with isolated large hail and a
few severe gusts. RAP forecast soundings in northeastern New Mexico
also have gradually veering winds with height below 700 mb and some
speed shear in the lowest 1 km, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
from 250 to 300 m2/s2. This may be enough for one or two tornadoes
with any discrete supercell that can persist into the early evening,
when the low-level jet will be stronger. An isolated severe threat
may also develop as a line of storms moves across parts of the
southern High Plains during the mid to late evening.

...Broyles/Moore.. 10/18/2024

$$

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