Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 17 2024 12:33:19

ACUS01 KWNS 171233
SWODY1
SPC AC 171231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Synopsis...
In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified yet progressive pattern will
persist through the period, as a strong, synoptic-scale ridge shifts
eastward over the Great Lakes, and the Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys.  Upstream, a strong trough now near the coastal Pacific
Northwest will dig southeastward across interior parts of the West
Coast States today into this evening, and much of the western Great
Basin/Intermountain regions overnight.  By 12Z, a 500-mb low should
form over eastern NV, along a trough extending from the northern
Rockies to the lower Colorado River Valley.  As that occurs, a
weaker, shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery near
the NV/UT and CA/AZ borders, should eject northeastward over the
central Rockies and central/northern High Plains, while weakening.
By the end of the period, broadly cyclonic flow will cover most of
the western CONUS.

Ahead of the strengthening main (Pacific Northwest) trough, height
falls and areas of DCVA/cooling aloft are forecast.  Those will
overlie a southeastward-surging low-level cold front across the
Intermountain region, and support isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorm potential over a vast swath of the West, either side of
the front.  Meager but sufficient low/midlevel moisture -- mostly
with distant/indirect origins in the subtropical gulfs either side
of northern Mexico -- will support this convection.  Strong gusts
may accompany some of the afternoon and early evening activity
along/ahead of the cold front across northern parts of NV/UT, amidst
strengthening deep shear.  However, overall moisture/buoyancy appear
too meager to outline an unconditional severe area at this time.

...Edwards/Goss.. 10/17/2024

$$

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