Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Oct 17 2024 07:17:48 ACUS03 KWNS 170717 SWODY3 SPC AC 170717 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico and perhaps portions of adjacent western Texas Saturday into Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ....Synopsis... Inland of the North American Pacific coast, strong zonal flow will prevail across much of Canada through this period. More amplified, but generally much weaker, flow will prevail across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes. The latter regime is likely to include a notable lingering mid-level low near the Four Corners. Only a very slow eastward/northeast movement of this low is forecast Saturday through Saturday night, mostly in response to perturbations pivoting around its periphery. Downstream of the low, models indicate that ridging will build across the southeastern Great Plains and lower through middle Mississippi Valley. In lower levels, cool surface ridging is forecast to remain prominent from the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity into the northern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf Coast. Although surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies is likely to continue to weaken, south/southeasterly low-level flow will persist across the high plains into the higher terrain and contribute to further moistening of Gulf origins, beneath broadly cyclonic and diffluent mid/upper flow. ....Eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... With the mid-level cold core remaining generally confined to the Colorado Plateau, lapse rates across and east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, through much of eastern New Mexico, may remain relatively weak on Saturday. This, coupled with further weakening of the lee surface troughing, does not appear particularly conducive to severe storm development. However, with some additional boundary-layer moistening beneath at least modestly cool mid-levels, CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg (and perhaps approach 1000 J/kg) by late Saturday afternoon, in the presence of continuing favorable shear profiles for supercells. One short wave perturbation pivoting around the southeastern periphery of the mid-level low may enhance convective development near or shortly after peak destabilization. However, there remains sizable spread within the model output concerning this feature. ...Kerr.. 10/17/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .