Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Oct 17 2024 04:49:19 ACUS02 KWNS 170449 SWODY2 SPC AC 170447 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of eastern New Mexico near the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. Some may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ....Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that a vigorous short wave impulse splitting off the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will continue digging across the southern Great Basin into the Southwest during this period. This appears likely to be accompanied by notable lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near/southwest of the Wasatch into the Colorado Plateau to the southwest of the Four Corners by late Friday night, as low-amplitude ridging within the stronger westerlies begins to shift inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. To the east, mid-level ridging, initially building across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region, likely will be maintained, with downstream confluent mid-level troughing and an embedded low only slowly continuing to progress offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. Beneath this regime, models indicate that cold surface ridging centered near the Appalachians will maintain a stabilizing influence as far south and west as the northwestern Gulf Coast region. Around the western periphery of this surface ridging, modest moisture return of Gulf origins will gradually return northward from northeastern Mexico into surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. ....Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains... It still appears that moisture return to the vicinity of weakening surface troughing, from the Front Range northeastward into the central Great Plains, may not support more than very weak boundary-layer destabilization with limited convective potential late Friday afternoon and evening. Farther south, from the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle area southward through the Texas/New Mexico border vicinity, warm layers aloft and weak boundary-destabilization may also tend to minimize the risk for severe storms. In response to modest surface pressure falls to the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains by early Friday evening, increasing low-level moisture return into the eastern slopes of the higher terrain is forecast to contribute to increasing boundary-layer destabilization. Coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft, the environment (including CAPE increasing up to 500 J/kg) may become increasingly conducive to intensifying thunderstorm development by late Friday evening. Shear profiles probably will become supportive of supercell structures with potential to produce marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. The 17/00Z NAM forecast soundings and hodographs around Las Vegas NM, in particular, appear potentially supportive of a tornado around 06Z Friday night. ...Kerr.. 10/17/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .