Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 16 2024 19:43:14

ACUS01 KWNS 161943
SWODY1
SPC AC 161941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected.

....20z update...
The previous outlook remains valid with minimal changes to the
ongoing Thunder Areas for the latest guidance. Isolated
thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of the Rockies and
Northwest ahead of the upper trough moving onshore tonight.
Additional storms are possible into early evening ahead of a cold
front over parts of the far southern Gulf Coast and Florida. No
severe storms are expected, see the prior discussion for more
information.

...Lyons.. 10/16/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024/

....Great Basin...
A weak upper trough and pockets of residual mid-level moisture will
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the
Great Basin today.  Model guidance suggests a weak mid-level speed
max moving across the Four Corners region into western CO.  Steep
low and mid level lapse rates could aid in locally gusty winds in
the strongest cells.  No organized severe storms are expected.

Other thunderstorms will occur beneath an upper trough affecting the
Pacific Northwest states.  Finally, a few thunderstorms are possible
in a warm/moist air mass present across south TX and south FL.

$$

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