Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 16 2024 08:24:08

ACUS48 KWNS 160824
SWOD48
SPC AC 160822

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Latest medium-range guidance is not much different that prior runs
for this period.  A fairly significant lower/mid-tropospheric
cyclone may remain centered near the Four Corners, cut off from the
westerlies, before beginning to slowly accelerate eastward on
Sunday.  As the southern/southwestern flank of cool surface ridging
is generally maintained across the northern Gulf of Mexico into
northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, and impedes low-level moistening
across the southern Great Plains, the potential for severe
thunderstorm development appears likely to remain rather limited.

As the remnant perturbation progresses more rapidly east of the
southern Rockies through the interior U.S., around the northeastern
periphery of building mid-level ridging centered over the
subtropics, models continue to indicate little in the way of
appreciable surface cyclogenesis and moistening southerly return
flow.  As a result, the potential for severe thunderstorm
development is expected to remain generally low through the early to
middle portion of next week.

...Kerr.. 10/16/2024

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