Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 16 2024 07:19:09 ACUS03 KWNS 160719 SWODY3 SPC AC 160718 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity. Some of these may produce small to marginally severe hail and a few potentially damaging wind gusts. ....Synopsis... While broad mid/upper ridging within the stronger westerlies begins to shift inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, a vigorous short wave impulse digging into the Southwest is forecast to support lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near/west of the Wasatch into areas southwest of the Four Corners by Friday night. To the east, mid-level ridging, initially building across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region, likely will be maintained, with downstream confluent mid-level troughing and an embedded low only slowly progressing offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. Beneath this regime, models that indicate cold surface ridging centered near the Appalachians will maintain a stable influence as far south and west as the northwestern Gulf Coast region. To the west of this surface ridging modest moisture return of Gulf origins will gradually return northward from northeastern Mexico into surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. ....Southwest into Great Plains... On modest initially southerly low-level flow, moisture return from the Gulf of California may precede strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft, near/north of the Greater Phoenix area into the Mogollon Rim vicinity by late Friday morning. This may support thunderstorm development which could produce some hail and gusty winds. However, based on current forecast soundings, it appears that this probably will remain below severe limits. Otherwise, moisture return along weakening surface troughing, from the Front Range northeastward into the central Great Plains, may not support more than very weak boundary-layer destabilization with limited convective potential late Friday afternoon and evening. However, late Friday evening into Friday night, NAM forecast soundings indicate better low-level moisture return in the presence of strengthening shear and forcing for ascent, near/east of the Sacramento and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Raton Mesa vicinity. This may support CAPE up to around 500 J/kg, and perhaps a few strong storms capable of producing marginally severe hail and localized potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Kerr.. 10/16/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .