Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 16 2024 04:42:09 ACUS02 KWNS 160442 SWODY2 SPC AC 160440 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ....Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will become increasingly split across western North America during this period, as initially consolidated large-scale troughing progresses inland. One notable embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue pivoting across and north/northeast of the Canadian Prairies, while a similar trailing perturbation digs inland of the northern Pacific coast, through areas near/east of the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. To the east of the Rockies, the primary and secondary surface cyclogenesis likely will accompany the lead impulse into the higher latitudes of interior Canada. The trailing cold front may surge east of the Canadian Prairies through much of northwestern Ontario by late Thursday night, while stalling northwest of the upper Great Lakes region through the northern Great Plains Red River Valley, the Black Hills vicinity, and the higher terrain of southern Wyoming/northern Colorado into the southern Great Basin. Downstream, beneath building mid-level ridging to the west of confluent mid-level troughing east of the Appalachians into the western Atlantic, the center of expansive cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians vicinity. This ridging appears likely to maintain a considerable stabilizing influence as far south as the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf coast vicinity. ....Pacific coast into Great Plains... It still appears that relatively warm layers aloft, and the lack of sufficient low-level moisture return, will preclude an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity near the lingering modestly deep surface troughing/cold front across the northern Great Plains into Front Range vicinity. However, large-scale forcing for ascent and cooling aloft, spreading across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and Rockies Thursday through Thursday night, probably will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support scattered areas of weak thunderstorm activity. ...Kerr.. 10/16/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .