Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 16 2024 05:15:08

ACUS01 KWNS 160515
SWODY1
SPC AC 160513

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on
Wednesday.

....Synopsis...
An amplified trough will be present across the East Coast. A
mid/upper-level low is then forecast to develop/deepen across
eastern North Carolina/Virginia through the period. In the West, a
broad upper trough will continue into the Northwest/northern
Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will continue to move
southward into Deep South Texas and south Florida.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible in south Florida. Given the
moist airmass in place, MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible south
of the front. Deep-layer shear will only be modest on the southern
flank of the trough to the north. Weak frontal convergence, limited
mid-level forcing, and weak mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit
both storm coverage and intensity. A stronger storm or two could
occur, however.

Greater buoyancy (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) is expected south of the
front in Deep South Texas. A few thunderstorms are possible. Minimal
deep layer shear should keep severe potential very low.

Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible from portions of
the Northwest as well as from the northern Rockies into the Great
Basin and Four Corners as the large-scale trough progresses east.
Limited buoyancy should hinder any severe potential here as well.

...Wendt/Bentley.. 10/16/2024

$$

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