Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 15 2024 20:20:01 FOUS30 KWBC 152019 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 419 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Tue Oct 15 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 16 2024 ....16Z Update... The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Oct 16 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 17 2024 ....2030Z Update... The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Wegman Day 3 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 17 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 18 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ....2030Z Update... A deepening trough over the Intermountain West will focus some of the moisture across New Mexico into a corridor that upslopes along the Sangre de Cristo Mountains on Thursday. While conditions in this region have been dry, the hydrophobic dry soils in the area as well as local burn scars such as Hermit's Peak of 2022 will locally raise the flash flooding potential that even rainfall rates to 1/4 inch per hour in these flood sensitive areas may result in localized flash flooding should stationary storms form. In coordination with ABQ/Albuquerque, NM forecast office, a Marginal Risk was introduced for north central New Mexico with this update. A few of the mountains into extreme south central Colorado may also focus enough rainfall to result in an isolated flash flooding risk. For the taller mountains of southern Colorado, the precipitation should mostly fall as snow and thus negate the local flash flooding risk, but future updates may require an expansion for the valley areas of southwest Colorado. More rainfall with a developing leeside low is expected in this area on Day 4/Friday. Wegman Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7pmZUXvny2KbIk8do1-h3S0n2ipbXAD19XS9fKZnK9j2= OeCiLdbcqKXpQPXvw9DUvM-THMJHZV_SoDg53AuCf3YSflY$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7pmZUXvny2KbIk8do1-h3S0n2ipbXAD19XS9fKZnK9j2= OeCiLdbcqKXpQPXvw9DUvM-THMJHZV_SoDg53AuCq4POFO0$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7pmZUXvny2KbIk8do1-h3S0n2ipbXAD19XS9fKZnK9j2= OeCiLdbcqKXpQPXvw9DUvM-THMJHZV_SoDg53AuCmKa4aCQ$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .