Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 15 2024 19:31:33

ACUS01 KWNS 151931
SWODY1
SPC AC 151930

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20z Update...
The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes, severe
thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated lightning with low-topped
thunderstorms will remain possible over the Great Lakes and central
Appalachians into early this evening. Scattered storms will also
remain likely over parts of the Southern Rockies ahead of a
south/southwestward surging cold front. Additional isolated storms
are possible ahead of the front along the Gulf Coast this
evening/tonight.

Cold mid-level temps beneath an upper trough moving onshore may be
sufficient for sporadic lightning within the deeper convective
showers over parts of northwest WA late tonight. However, cool
surface temperatures, and paltry buoyancy (MUCAPE ~100-200 J/kg)
suggest any lightning that does actually develop will likely remain
below 10% spatial coverage.

...Lyons.. 10/15/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/

A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late
temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms
across parts of the Midwest states today.  Other high-based
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the
Four-Corners region.  And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue
to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast
period.  No severe storms are anticipated today.

$$

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