Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 15 2024 12:42:29 ACUS01 KWNS 151242 SWODY1 SPC AC 151241 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ....Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist over the CONUS, characterized by an elongated cyclone over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a primary center initially over the lower St. Lawrence River region. The associated 500-mb low should drift erratically near its present location for most of today, then move northeastward toward the easternmost extension of QC overnight. A strong, basal trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Lower Great Lakes and southern Upper Great Lakes region, westward across the upper Mississippi Valley. This trough will pivot southeastward through the period, then by 12Z tomorrow, extend from offshore of New England across VA, the western Carolinas, northern GA, to central MS and the Arklatex region. Associated cold air aloft, steep low/middle-level lapse rates (aided by boundary-layer flow off the relatively warm lakes) and weak moisture will foster isolated thunderstorm potential south of portions of Lakes Erie and Michigan today. Elsewhere, thunderstorms have persisted all night in a residual, quasistationary, convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across the Bahamas and southern/western Straits of FL. This thunder potential should persist episodically through the period, with some inland development possible this afternoon across the Everglades and perhaps adjoining southern parts of metro South FL. A stronger boundary, moving southward through northern/central FL as a cold front, may support isolated thunder near that part of the FL East Coast today, amid modest moisture/lift. In the Four Corners region, isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as heating/mixing reduce generally 30s F surface dewpoints into the 20s, but still just enough moisture to support weak (generally less than 200 J/kg) peak MLCAPE. ...Edwards.. 10/15/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .