Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 15 2024 08:47:57 ACUS48 KWNS 150847 SWOD48 SPC AC 150846 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ....DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a closed low will form within an amplifying short wave trough digging southeast of the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by early Friday. It appears probable that this will become cut off from the westerlies, with the center of the modestly broad circulation lingering near or southwest of the Four Corners into early Sunday, as low-amplitude ridging passes by to the north, near the western through central Canadian/U.S. border area. Sunday into Monday, models suggest that it may come under the influence of strengthening westerly mean flow, transitioning to an open wave and accelerating northeastward into the central Great Plains, before continuing to migrate around the northeastern periphery of building mid-level ridging centered over the subtropics. Models continue to indicate that this is unlikely to become accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. And low-level moisture return in the wake of weakening cold surface ridging across the northwest Gulf Coast region may remain modest to weak. While modestly steep lapse rates may contribute to isolated to widely scattered strong diurnal thunderstorm development near surface troughing to the lee of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains Friday through Sunday, the overall severe weather potential still appears generally low. ...Kerr.. 10/15/2024 = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .