Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 14 2024 18:57:53

ACUS03 KWNS 141857
SWODY3
SPC AC 141856

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.

....Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough initially covering the eastern CONUS
is forecast to move eastward on Wednesday, as an upper-level ridge
builds into parts of the central/southern Great Plains and Midwest.
A mid/upper-level trough over much of the West is forecast to
gradually amplify through the period, as multiple embedded
shortwaves traverse the region. At the surface, a cold front will
continue moving southward across the central/northern Gulf of Mexico
into parts of south FL and Deep South TX. In the wake of the front,
an expansive surface ridge will inhibit low-level moisture return,
with instability remaining very limited to nil across most of the
CONUS.

Across Deep South TX, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development will be possible, with relatively rich moisture expected
to be in place prior to the frontal passage. While moderate buoyancy
may support a strong storm or two within this regime, generally weak
deep-layer flow/shear is expected to limit organized severe
potential.

Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near and north of
the Four Corners region, as a weak midlevel low initially over AZ
weakens and moves northeastward within broader cyclonic flow. Cold
temperatures aloft will support weak convection with potential for
sporadic lightning flashes across parts of western WA/OR. Some
lightning potential cannot be ruled out from northeast CA/northern
NV into the interior Northwest, though confidence in more than very
isolated flashes remains low at this time.

...Dean.. 10/14/2024

$$

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