Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 14 2024 17:27:21 ACUS02 KWNS 141727 SWODY2 SPC AC 141725 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ....Synopsis... A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will remain in place over the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with an embedded shortwave trough forecast to dig southeastward from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by Tuesday night. Across the West, a weak midlevel cyclone over parts of Arizona is forecast to move little through the period, while a deeper mid/upper-level trough and embedded shortwaves begin to affect the Pacific Northwest. Low-level moisture and instability will generally be limited across the CONUS, with an expansive surface ridge keeping richer moisture confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. A southward-moving cold front will impinge upon the richer moisture through the day, but with stronger large-scale ascent displaced well to the north, thunderstorm potential along the front appears relatively limited. A storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the north-central FL Peninsula (especially in close proximity to the east and west coasts), and also across extreme southeast LA, but coverage is expected to remain quite isolated at best. Isolated storms will also be possible across parts of the FL Keys and far southern peninsula, where deeper tropical moisture will be in place. Some instability will spread southward along the TX Gulf Coast, and potentially inland into south-central TX, but confidence in storm development across this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains low. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Four Corners region, near and northeast of the midlevel cyclone over Arizona. Cold midlevel temperatures (less than -10C at 700 mb) will support convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan, Lake Erie, and parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance currently suggests that thunderstorm potential associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will largely remain offshore, though very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near northwest WA by the end of the forecast period. ...Dean.. 10/14/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .