Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Oct 14 2024 07:12:16 ACUS03 KWNS 140712 SWODY3 SPC AC 140711 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... It appears that thunderstorm development will remain limited, with negligible risk for severe weather across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ....Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will continue to develop inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains during this period. Within this regime, one short wave impulse emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night, while a trailing perturbation digs into the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to the southwest of the Four Corners region appears likely to accelerate northeastward into and across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, as it becomes absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow. In response to the upstream developments, and the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western Atlantic, initially amplified mid-level troughing near the Atlantic Seaboard will tend to remain progressive, but undergo considerable deformation near and offshore of the coast through early Thursday. One remnant embedded perturbation may support a developing surface wave along an associated frontal zone well offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. While this migrates east-northeastward through the Atlantic, the trailing front may linger near or just south of the Florida Keys, while stalling/weakening across the south central Gulf of Mexico into lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity. As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of the higher terrain of southwest Texas into New Mexico. Thus, despite the potential focus and forcing near the deepening surface troughing, from eastern Colorado/western Kansas through eastern Montana and the western Dakotas by late Wednesday night, the risk for thunderstorm development (and potential for severe weather) appears negligible. ...Kerr.. 10/14/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .