Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 14 2024 00:51:44

ACUS01 KWNS 140051
SWODY1
SPC AC 140050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE...

....SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible for a few more
hours this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee
Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along a cold
front from central Tennessee to central Pennsylvania. Most of these
storms are clearly sub-severe, but a few stronger cells with MESH
cores approaching 1 inch and weak rotating updrafts have been
apparent over the last hour. The 00Z BNA RAOB showed and environment
which supports some severe convection (1200 J/kg MLCAPE and 34 knots
of effective shear). However, the boundary layer has cooled ahead of
these storms and it will continue to cool through the evening while
storms also move east of the best low-level moisture. Therefore,
some threat for isolated severe storms may remain for the next 1 to
2 hours, but the overall threat should lessen within the next few
hours as the boundary layer continues to cool and stabilize.

...Bentley.. 10/14/2024

$$

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