Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 13 2024 20:04:21

FOUS30 KWBC 132004
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Oct 13 2024 - 12Z Mon Oct 14 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA URBAN CORRIDOR...

No changes were made to the inherited Marginal risk area over the
southeast Florida urban corridor given the expected renewal of
convection later this afternoon. Convection should have better
instability to work with, and thus a better chance of more robust
development. Coverage remains a question, but high res guidance
suggests a weak surface trough/wave moving across south Florida
should help locally enhance convergence this afternoon.

With any deeper convection tapping into the stronger westerly flow
aloft, the tendency may be for cells to have more of an eastward
motion this afternoon and with a bit more speed than on Saturday,
limiting rainfall duration as cells move offshore. However if low
level easterly flow is strong enough and/or the low level
convergence axis is persistent enough, then we could see at least
some cell training for a period of time. Overall the ingredients
are in place to suggest a localized flash flood risk is a
possibility. The 13/12Z HREF guidance supports isolated 3" totals,
but there is minimal model support for amounts much higher than
that.

For this reason, the Marginal risk should continue to cover this
isolated urban flash flood threat...as not seeing enough support
for Slight risk level impacts/coverage at this time.

Chenard/Bann

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Oct 14 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 15 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 15 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 16 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Bann


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8qwOvx0yOMHVX_6rTBaW8-_Ymlo43kqP9xfWeNGa9-as=
wbTvhWrW_UVcjIPZ8GFXDKsFIlUtTUtin50roOTN3t1BhHE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8qwOvx0yOMHVX_6rTBaW8-_Ymlo43kqP9xfWeNGa9-as=
wbTvhWrW_UVcjIPZ8GFXDKsFIlUtTUtin50roOTNNFweFYk$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!8qwOvx0yOMHVX_6rTBaW8-_Ymlo43kqP9xfWeNGa9-as=
wbTvhWrW_UVcjIPZ8GFXDKsFIlUtTUtin50roOTNLdjmZ5A$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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