Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 13 2024 19:33:43 ACUS01 KWNS 131933 SWODY1 SPC AC 131932 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ....SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ....20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. The 5% wind/Marginal risk area was expanded slightly across portions of central to northeast PA where morning cloud cover has cleared and allowed for stronger daytime heating/destabilization (denoted by temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s). These observations appear to be well assimilated into recent HRRR/RRFS runs, which have trended towards a slightly stronger UH/convective signal compared to early-morning solutions. The risk lines have been adjusted to account for these recent trends. ...Moore.. 10/13/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ....Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .