Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 13 2024 08:01:49 FOUS30 KWBC 130801 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Oct 13 2024 - 12Z Mon Oct 14 2024 ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA URBAN CORRIDOR... No changes were made to the inherited Marginal risk area over the southeast FL urban corridor. Isolated convection will be ongoing at 12z this morning along the coastal convergence axis...with another round of activity likely this afternoon. It is the afternoon convection that appears to have better instability to work with,=20 and thus a better chance of more robust development. Coverage=20 remains a question, but high res guidance suggests a weak surface=20 trough/wave moving across south FL should help locally enhance=20 convergence this afternoon.=20 With any deeper convection tapping into the stronger westerly flow aloft, the tendency may be for cells to have more of an eastward=20 motion this afternoon, limiting rainfall duration as cells move=20 offshore. However if low level easterly flow is strong enough=20 and/or the low level convergence axis is persistent enough, then=20 we could see at least some cell training for a period of time.=20 Overall the ingredients are in place to suggest a localized flash=20 flood risk is a possibility. HREF guidance supports isolated 3"=20 totals, but there is minimal model support for amounts much higher than that. The Marginal risk should cover this isolated urban=20 flash flood threat...as not seeing enough support for Slight risk=20 level impacts/coverage at this time. Chenard Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 14 2024 - 12Z Tue Oct 15 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Chenard Day 3 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 15 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 16 2024 The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less than 5 percent. Chenard Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!41e88owv39Alet8QQc7W2aNWyy7IObxGOwiDPstRyMcx= JmjngxnmGl67DNwkcQQ9hTyAUP2rQ9-Uh-qrOp8EdKWFUy4$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!41e88owv39Alet8QQc7W2aNWyy7IObxGOwiDPstRyMcx= JmjngxnmGl67DNwkcQQ9hTyAUP2rQ9-Uh-qrOp8EQquz6HQ$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!41e88owv39Alet8QQc7W2aNWyy7IObxGOwiDPstRyMcx= JmjngxnmGl67DNwkcQQ9hTyAUP2rQ9-Uh-qrOp8EW6NusTg$=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .