Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Oct 13 2024 04:31:38 ACUS02 KWNS 130431 SWODY2 SPC AC 130430 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ....Synopsis... Latest model output indicates little change from prior runs for this period, with the mid-latitude westerlies forecast to remain modestly amplified but generally progressive Monday through Monday night. Within this regime, it appears that initially more prominent ridging over the Canadian Prairies will begin to break down. As the ridge axis takes on a more notable positive tilt (toward Hudson Bay), the axis of large-scale downstream troughing will gradually do the same across the eastern U.S. into the Canadian Maritimes. Within the cyclonic flow, a significant lead short wave impulse remains forecast to be accompanied by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near the north Atlantic Seaboard into the Canadian Maritimes/St. Lawrence Valley. As a similar trailing perturbation digs across the international border and Upper Midwest, toward the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, cool surface ridging is forecast to build southward into much of the interior U.S. by the end of the period. It appears that the leading edge of the cold intrusion will advance through the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast states, well south of the mid-level cold core (shifting across the upper Great Lakes) and upper support for large-scale ascent, with little appreciable risk for thunderstorms. As flow trends cyclonic across the Gulf of Mexico into subtropical Atlantic, an embedded residual mid-level shear axis, demarcating the northern periphery of a remnant plume of tropical moisture, likely will gradually shift southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys. Across the West, large-scale mid-level ridging may continue to develop inland of the Pacific coast through the Rockies. However, a weakening low initially over the Great Basin may generally be maintained while slowly digging southeastward, to the west and southwest of the Four Corners region. Mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling to the northeast of this feature may contribute to sufficient destabilization to support convection capable of producing lightning across the higher terrain of Utah/adjacent northern Arizona into eastern Colorado Monday afternoon and evening. ...Kerr.. 10/13/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .