Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 13 2024 00:42:36

ACUS01 KWNS 130042
SWODY1
SPC AC 130040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

....Discussion...
A swath of elevated thunderstorms across the southern Great Lakes
region will shift east-southeast tonight. Variably decreasing and
increasing wind speeds with height in the LCL-EL layer will limit
effective bulk shear. This suggests potential for elevated supercell
structures will be low. On the west-southwest periphery of the
convective swath, small hail will be possible given a modest
buoyancy plume and steep mid-level lapse rates (as sampled by the
00Z ILX sounding) emanating northeast from the Mid-MS Valley.

Very isolated thunderstorms will be possible within the left-exit
region of a shortwave trough and attendant mid-level jet, amplifying
from MB into the Upper Midwest. Despite scant elevated buoyancy at
most, the strengthening forcing for ascent could support a narrow
swath of lightning flashes downstream of ongoing convection over the
Red River Valley.

Potential for isolated thunderstorms should slowly expand north
overnight across the south FL Peninsula from the FL Straits.
Redevelopment of convection should remain mostly confined to the
nearshore and adjacent offshore waters through 12Z Sunday.

...Grams.. 10/13/2024

$$

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