Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 12 2024 17:06:01

ACUS02 KWNS 121705
SWODY2
SPC AC 121704

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

....SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in a corridor across West
Virginia, and perhaps into portions of eastern Kentucky and
southwestern Virginia, late tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon and evening.
Small to marginally severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts
are the main concerns.

....Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS
as a 500 mb cut-off low meanders over the Interior West and a second
upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface
low will translate across the eastern OH Valley and Mid Atlantic
states during the day, promoting deep-layer ascent amid just enough
moisture return to support thunderstorm development (a couple of
which may be strong). Meanwhile, steep lapse rates associated with
the 500 mb low over the Four Corners, in conjunction with adequate
surface heating and orographic lift, may support isolated
thunderstorm development. Daytime heating of a moist airmass may
also encourage the development of a few thunderstorms over the
southern FL Peninsula.

....Central Appalachians...
As the surface low progresses toward the Mid Atlantic, a cold front
will sag southeastward across the eastern OH Valley into the central
Appalachians by afternoon peak heating, providing lift for at least
isolated thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints are expected to
only reach the mid 50s F. However, 7+ C/km low and mid-level lapse
rates may support over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE, that combined with rapidly
strengthening vertical wind profiles and 35+ kts of effective bulk
shear, may support organized multicells immediately ahead of the
cold front. A couple of damaging gusts or instances of small to
marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with the stronger storms.

...Squitieri.. 10/12/2024

$$

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