Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 12 2024 19:34:34

ACUS01 KWNS 121934
SWODY1
SPC AC 121933

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today and tonight.

....20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required.
Weak convection across the Great Lakes region has produced small
(less than one inch) hail within the past couple of hours, but the
thermodynamic environment remains rather marginal and is not
expected to substantially improve. Latest CAM guidance continues to
show weak convective signals across the region, suggesting the
potential for organized severe convection remains low. See the
previous discussion for additional details.

...Moore.. 10/12/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024/

....Great Lakes Region...
Another relatively quiet convective day is anticipated across the
CONUS, with most areas dry and stable.  One exception will be along
and north of a surface boundary extending across northern IN.  A
fast-moving shortwave trough currently over MI/WI will track along
this boundary, aiding in the development of late afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms - mainly over southern Lower MI.
Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds
aloft, but very limited moisture and CAPE.  The strongest cells may
produce small hail and gusty winds, but current indications are that
severe thunderstorms are unlikely.

Other thunderstorms may affect portions of south FL and the Keys
this afternoon, but no severe storms are expected.

$$

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