Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 12 2024 08:50:27

ACUS48 KWNS 120850
SWOD48
SPC AC 120849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

....DISCUSSION...
It still appears that an evolving large-scale eastern U.S. upper
trough will reach peak amplitude near the Atlantic Seaboard around
the middle of next week, when cool surface ridging may encompass
much of the interior U.S. into areas offshore of the Gulf and south
Atlantic coasts.  Thereafter, even as the mid-level troughing
progresses into the Atlantic and loses amplitude, medium-range
guidance indicates that surface ridging will be maintained across
the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, on the southwestern flank of a
retreating surface high.

There appears greater spread within the model output concerning
possible subsequent significant surface cyclogenesis from the lee of
the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies through the interior higher
latitudes of Canada, in response to forcing associated with a short
wave trough emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific during the middle
to latter portion of next week.  Even though this may initially
include the development of fairly deep surface troughing from the
lee of the northern U.S. Rockies into the Great Plains, it appears
that low-level Gulf moisture return will be limited.  While there
may be some increase in thunderstorm activity across parts of the
Great Plains by next Thursday and Friday, the lack of widespread
appreciable destabilization will probably tend to minimize the risk
for severe thunderstorms.

...Kerr.. 10/12/2024

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