Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Oct 12 2024 07:05:26 ACUS03 KWNS 120705 SWODY3 SPC AC 120704 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ....Discussion... Models indicate that the mid-latitude westerlies will remain modestly amplified, but still generally progressive through this period and beyond. Within this regime, it appears that large-scale troughing will continue to evolve across the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave perturbation is forecast to be accompanied by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near the north Atlantic Seaboard into the Canadian Maritimes, and across the St. Lawrence Valley. As a trailing perturbation digs across the Upper Midwest toward the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, cool surface ridging is likely to build southward through the interior U.S. Monday through Monday night. It appears that the leading edge of the cold intrusion will advance southeastward through the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast states, well south of the mid-level cold core (becoming centered over the Great Lakes) and upper support for large-scale ascent, with little appreciable risk for thunderstorms. As flow trends cyclonic across the Gulf of Mexico into subtropical Atlantic, an embedded residual mid-level shear axis, demarcating the northern periphery of a remnant plume of tropical moisture, appears likely to gradually shift across and southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys. Across the West, large-scale mid-level ridging is likely to continue to develop inland of the Pacific coast through the Rockies. However, a weakening low initially over the Great Basin may generally be maintained while slowly digging southeastward, to the west and southwest of the Four Corners region. ...Kerr.. 10/12/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .