Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Oct 11 2024 12:45:52 ACUS01 KWNS 111245 SWODY1 SPC AC 111244 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ....Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated showers and thunderstorms producing occasional lighting may persist for a few more hours across eastern/southern OK and vicinity before diminishing as modest warm advection with a south-southwesterly low-level jet weakens later this morning. A cold front will advance southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. While low-level moisture and related instability are expected to remain quite limited ahead of the front, cool mid-level temperatures and strong ascent with the upper trough may support isolated thunderstorms across parts of northern MI this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity could produce occasional gusty winds given strengthening low/mid-level flow through the day, but the overall severe threat still appears low. The front and upper trough will continue across the Northeast tonight. But, instability is forecast to remain minimal, which should hinder thunderstorm potential. Convection should also develop this afternoon across parts of south FL and the Keys. Even with poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft, some of this activity could produce isolated lightning flashes. A shortwave trough will move across the northern CA/western OR vicinity this evening and overnight. Thunderstorms may occur offshore, but potential for lightning over land appears limited. ...Gleason/Jewell.. 10/11/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .