Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 11 2024 08:42:19

ACUS48 KWNS 110842
SWOD48
SPC AC 110840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance indicates that there will be substantive
further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing to the east
of the Mississippi Valley early next week.  Peak amplitude may occur
near/east of the Atlantic Seaboard early Wednesday, when cool
surface ridging may encompass much of the interior U.S. into areas
offshore of the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts.

Although another vigorous digging short wave impulse may reinforce
the larger-scale mid-level troughing near the northern Atlantic
Seaboard into late week, a southerly return flow may develop across
the southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest, ahead of
significant mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude
Pacific.  It is possible that this could be accompanied by at least
some increase in thunderstorm development ahead of an associated
cold front Thursday through Friday.  However, it is not yet clear
that low-level moistening will contribute to sufficient
destabilization to support more than low probabilities for severe
thunderstorms.

...Kerr.. 10/11/2024

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