Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Oct 11 2024 04:43:19 ACUS02 KWNS 110443 SWODY2 SPC AC 110441 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ....Synopsis... Strong cyclogenesis appears underway near the Aleutians and, by early Saturday, models indicate that a broad, deep cyclone will become centered across the northeastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, to the east of the Aleutians. This is forecast to lead to amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of North America, including building mid-level ridging to the east of the Canadian Rockies and digging downstream mid-level troughing across the eastern Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. In lower latitudes, a modest mid-level trough likely will be forced inland across the Oregon/northern California coast, suppressing initial mid-level ridging across the Great Basin into southern Rockies. Downstream, in the wake of the weakening remnants of Milton, forecast to continue migrating east-northeastward through the subtropical Atlantic, a remnant weak frontal zone, initially near or just south of the Florida Keys, is forecast to weaken further. It appears that this will occur beneath generally steady or slowly rising mid-level heights, as a sheared mid-level perturbation shifts across and offshore of northern Florida. Seasonably moisture air will generally remain confined to the south of the weakening frontal zone, but some low-level moistening is forecast along an initially quasi-stationary segment of a frontal zone, to the north of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by early Saturday. ....Portions of the Midwest into upper Ohio Valley... Models suggest that weak forcing for ascent and warm mid-levels will suppress thunderstorm development along and south of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. However, downstream of the southern periphery of the digging mid-level troughing, weak destabilization rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may contribute to thunderstorm development within a narrow corridor above the frontal zone/well to the north of the surface front, mainly Saturday night. Given the generally weak forecast instability and cloud-bearing layer shear, the potential for severe hail in stronger storms seems low. ...Kerr.. 10/11/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .