Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 11 2024 00:49:51

FOUS30 KWBC 110049
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Day 1
Valid 01Z Fri Oct 11 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 11 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

01Z Update...

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall will be maintained overnight
for coastal areas of east-central FL involving mainly the Space
Coast. Low-level onshore flow overnight and especially in the 06Z=20
to 12Z time frame is expected to veer somewhat and promote an axis=20
of locally focused moisture convergence and transport of at least=20
some very weak/shallow instability toward the coast from the=20
warmer offshore waters of the southwest Atlantic. There is some=20
modest HREF and HRRR guidance signals for some shallow warm-topped
convection to develop and orient itself with the low-level=20
northeast flow and take aim on the immediate coastal areas of east-
central FL. The 12Z/18Z HREF guidance suggests some low-end=20
probabilities of seeing sufficient rainfall for some 3-hour FFG=20
exceedance. Some of the shallow and thus efficient convection may=20
yield some spotty 1 to 1.5 inch/hour rainfall rates, and perhaps a=20
few localized totals of 2 to 3 inches. Given the wet antecedent=20
conditions, a few highly isolated/localized concerns for runoff=20
problems will be possible.

Orrison

Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 11 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kebede

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 13 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kebede


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_SEm1_ZZS64fWCBiGB6FhlfxMxUvsm0KTG4ZxB20nPnt=
rhczxNzjIMCc-9VqJx1-pkQAQBSwHQF5MEB1FsCyCAWJyYo$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_SEm1_ZZS64fWCBiGB6FhlfxMxUvsm0KTG4ZxB20nPnt=
rhczxNzjIMCc-9VqJx1-pkQAQBSwHQF5MEB1FsCyP3jFwmA$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_SEm1_ZZS64fWCBiGB6FhlfxMxUvsm0KTG4ZxB20nPnt=
rhczxNzjIMCc-9VqJx1-pkQAQBSwHQF5MEB1FsCyKPNrOG4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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