Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Oct 10 2024 19:30:47 ACUS03 KWNS 101930 SWODY3 SPC AC 101929 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Saturday, but the severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be low. ....Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deepen on Saturday across parts of the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes, as a series of low-amplitude shortwaves move through the trough during the day, and a stronger shortwave trough and related jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies by evening. A surface low is forecast to develop along a front in the northern MO/IL vicinity, and then move east-northeastward during the afternoon/evening. Modest low-level moistening and cooling midlevel temperatures will support the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy by afternoon. In the absence of more robust moisture return, potential for storm development across the warm sector is uncertain. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front, within a low-level warm-advection regime. Deep-layer flow will be sufficient for some storm organization, but uncertainties regarding the potential for any surface-based development, as well as the magnitude of buoyancy available for elevated convection, preclude severe probabilities at this time. ....South FL and the Keys... Deeper tropical moisture is forecast to gradually spread northward across the Keys and south FL Peninsula on Saturday. This will likely be accompanied by an increase in thunderstorm potential through the day and into the evening. Modest midlevel southwesterly flow may provide sufficient effective shear for some transient storm organization, though weak lapse rates will tend to limit potential for more robust updrafts. ...Dean.. 10/10/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .