Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 10 2024 08:27:59

FOUS30 KWBC 100827
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 10 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 11 2024

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

Heavy rainfall from Milton continues to quickly move east across
the Florida Peninsula. Additional rain of 1 to 4 inches is likely
over the next couple hours along portions of the central and
northern FL east coast. However based on recent radar and HRRR=20
trends it appears likely that most, if not all, of this heavier=20
rain will be offshore by 12z this morning. Thus while areas of=20
considerable flash flooding will continue over the next few hours,=20
the expectation is that additional flash flooding after 12z will be
minimal. For that reason we will carry only a Marginal risk on the
new day 1 ERO that goes into effect at 12z this morning. The=20
ongoing High risk remains valid for the next couple hours until=20
12z. Keep in mind that even after the heavy rain ends, significant
areal and river flooding will continue to be a concern in areas=20
that have received significant rainfall.

Chenard

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 11 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024 - 12Z Sun Oct 13 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5MNastu06XxXzJH3wXxWPtsYOLzhW8WVOA7UywFiwOU7=
1qIqNBKd8CSdP0DCCNj5M6mJlgMlSCdvFhHbCuWJe0KjS9g$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5MNastu06XxXzJH3wXxWPtsYOLzhW8WVOA7UywFiwOU7=
1qIqNBKd8CSdP0DCCNj5M6mJlgMlSCdvFhHbCuWJS2zPrSo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5MNastu06XxXzJH3wXxWPtsYOLzhW8WVOA7UywFiwOU7=
1qIqNBKd8CSdP0DCCNj5M6mJlgMlSCdvFhHbCuWJKZ04_lk$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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