Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 09 2024 19:12:51 ACUS01 KWNS 091912 SWODY1 SPC AC 091911 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN FLORIDA... ....SUMMARY... Several tornadoes, including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with Hurricane Milton. ....20z Update... The primary change for this update was an eastward shift of the 10% and SIG tornado risk areas across the FL Peninsula. Recent radar imagery shows a prominent rain band with embedded supercells extending from central to south-central FL. The expectation is for the primary tornado threat to be focused along and ahead of this arcing band as storms move towards a higher theta-e air mass in place along Florida's east coast and as kinematic profiles continue to strengthen with the approach of Hurricane Milton (see MCDs #2141 and #2142 for additional short-term details). Tornado probabilities have been reduced along Florida's west coast primarily due to the approach of the main rain bands/core of Hurricane Milton, which will limit the potential for long-lived supercells to some degree. However, embedded circulations within subsequent rain bands may linger into the overnight hours. ...Moore.. 10/09/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ....FL Peninsula... Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight. Midday visible-satellite imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Heating across the interior portions of the Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s with dewpoints in the upper 70s. The largest hodographs favorable for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon and into the evening. The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible. As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells. The tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .