Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 09 2024 16:25:17

ACUS01 KWNS 091625
SWODY1
SPC AC 091623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

....SUMMARY...
Several tornadoes are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts
of the central/southern Florida Peninsula in association with
Hurricane Milton. A few strong tornadoes are possible.

....FL Peninsula...
Hurricane Milton will continue moving northeastward through tonight
per the latest NHC forecast track, making landfall along the
west-central FL Gulf Coast tonight.  Midday visible-satellite
imagery and radar mosaic shows a cluster of discrete and a few
potentially tornadic supercells moving north through the Lake
Okeechobee vicinity.  Heating across the interior portions of the
Peninsula (southeast of a line from Port Charlotte to Cape
Canaveral) has resulted in temperatures warming into the lower 80s
with dewpoints in the upper 70s.  The largest hodographs favorable
for mesocyclonic development and tornado potential will generally
reside within the Level-3 Enhanced Risk area through the afternoon
and into the evening.  The overlap of higher theta-e and enlarging
hodographs will be favorable for a continued threat for cyclic
tornadic supercells this afternoon within this corridor, where a few
strong tornadoes (EF2-EF3 equivalent intensity) are possible.

As convective bands associated with Milton continue to move ashore
the southwest FL coast northward to the Tampa Bay vicinity, a
tornado risk will accompany the stronger embedded cells.  The
tornado threat will continue this evening and gradually shift
eastward across the FL Peninsula tonight through early Thursday
morning, before eventually waning/moving offshore.

...Smith/Thornton.. 10/09/2024

$$

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