Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 09 2024 15:18:30 AWUS01 KWNH 091518 FFGMPD FLZ000-092100- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1098 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1117 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...western FL Peninsula Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 091516Z - 092100Z Summary...A powerful outer rain band is expected to reach the west coast of FL over the next 1-2 hours. Rainfall rates of 2 to 3+ in/hr will be possible where training occurs and flash flooding will be likely. Additional banding and heavy rain is likely to continue into the mid-afternoon, increasing the coverage of flash flooding. Discussion...15Z radar imagery from KTBW showed an outer rain band ahead of Hurricane Milton just offshore from Englewood to Naples. This powerful outer rain band has been edging closer to the coast and is expected to reach the coastal population centers from south to north over the next 1-2 hours. Due to the slow eastward movement of this band, peak MRMS-derived rainfall rates have been estimated at 2 to 2.5 in/hr offshore. As Milton continues to track northeastward toward the west coast of FL through 21Z, this outer band is expected to rotate inland and northward, bringing rainfall rates of 2-3 in/hr at times along the coast from near Tampa Bay to Charlotte Harbor. The outer rain band will likely followed by a temporary lull in heavy rainfall as it moves through, given a minimum in colder cloud tops on infrared satellite imagery between the band and the center of Milton. However, additional heavy rain will develop as subsequent bands associated with Milton form and move ashore. The 15Z NHC advisory from NHC indicates Milton is moving toward the northeast at 15 kt, with the center forecast to be located about 30 miles off the coast of Sarasota County at 00Z. Areas along the coast will be must susceptible to flash flooding over the next few hours given the urban nature and wet antecedent conditions including 1-2 inches of rain since midnight. Peak additional rainfall through 21Z of 3-5 inches will be possible with areas of flash flooding becoming likely. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!48k5BXyZi85lbruWbGFxuULkO0pPJvFTZJbdF8QQ4jRHoBBDhuEfpYhpIBfV_nRVkGb3= hPOPuqIonChvQNJ0gqq_hn4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 28858251 28568204 27708163 26598143 25908133=20 25688148 25748190 26418248 27238292 27988310=20 28638278=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .