Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 09 2024 14:35:30 AWUS01 KWNH 091435 FFGMPD FLZ000-092000- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1097 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1034 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Areas affected...eastern FL Peninsula Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 091433Z - 092000Z Summary...Slow moving showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates between 1-3 in/hr are expected to pose a flash flood threat to the eastern FL Peninsula from east of Lake Okeechobee to Jacksonville. Additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches through 20Z will be possible, but likely remaining localized. Discussion...14Z regional radar imagery showed a slow moving axis of heavy rainfall located in northeastern FL between Saint Augustine and Palm Coast, extending inland about 25 miles. Peak observed rainfall rates have been between 1-2 in/hr but the persistent slow moving nature of the rainfall has led to 2 to 4+ inch rainfall totals since midnight, but with much of that falling over the past 4 hours. Another axis of heavy rain was occurring near Cape Canaveral with a northward movement observed, but with redevelopment and repeating from the south. Easterly winds of 20-30 kt at 925 mb were contributing to low level axes of confluence, helping to focus the ongoing axes of heavy rainfall with mean steering flow from the south. Aloft, a strong upper level jet axis was located along the southern Mid-Atlantic coast with right entrance region ascent contributing to lift across the FL Peninsula. SPC mesoanalysis and RAP data showed a relative minimum in instability between the two ongoing axes of heavy rainfall that is forecast to persist over the next 3-5 hours, but the environment remained highly favorable for heavy rain with precipitable water values of 1.8 to 2.3 inches. Short term forecasts from the RAP indicate the northern confluence axis slowly edging northward through 20Z, possibly affecting the Jacksonville metro into the early afternoon. Farther south, development of showers/thunderstorms is expected from near northern Palm Beach County toward the Cape Canaveral region with slow northward translation but with regeneration and repeating from the south within the confluent flow. Additional rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are expected through 20Z over portions of the eastern Peninsula, though cannot rule out localized additional totals over 4 inches. Localized flash flooding will be possible, especially with overlap of urban corridors. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6m7X87byyiaCT1Dr08_3nVnvIw0masfV791yzaHZzyjV37yAQCDg8hjjNow46ed4PunT= cxMDIdnO2ekeFdMgl4UCWV0$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...MFL...MLB...TBW... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 30628125 29988090 28528033 27297993 26858053=20 26948101 27528132 28138176 29118216 29668215=20 30088200 30548181=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .